- Do you want financial freedom?
- Do you want to earn 8-10% annually with less risk than the market?
- Do you want to be able to ignore daily market volatility and sleep well at night?
- Do you want to learn new investing strategies to enhance returns?
- Do you want to pay minimal attention to your portfolio and just let it grow?
If you answered “yes” to any of these questions, then THE LIBERTY PORTFOLIO is for you.
THE LIBERTY PORTFOLIO is a joint project: its editor will build a real-money portfolio right alongside you. With over 23 years of investing experience, he will guide you, educate you, and help you achieve financial freedom using strategies developed in the best of times…and the worst of times.
Sure, other advisory services recommend trades designed to deliver outsized returns. Their dirty little secret, however, is that these trades also carry high degrees of risk.
THE LIBERTY PORTFOLIO does the research for you, with the goal of finding market- beating returns with less risk than the benchmarks carry, and with substantially less risk than virtually any other advisory service.
There is another compelling feature about THE LIBERTY PORTFOLIO: it is truly an “all-weather” strategy. It doesn’t matter if the market is up, neutral, or down. You’ll make very few changes to your core portfolio from one year to the next, and have the opportunity to engage in a few simple stock and option trades every month to enhance your returns.
Goal and Strategy
The goal of THE LIBERTY PORTFOLIO is simple: To provide financial freedom for Conservative Investors.
The strategy of THE LIBERTY PORTFOLIO is simple: build and maintain a long-term diversified portfolio whose returns are intended to beat the true cost of inflation (8-10%), with less risk than a weighted average of benchmarks.
What is Financial Freedom?
You deserve financial freedom and THE LIBERTY PORTFOLIO is here to help. What do I mean by “financial freedom”?
It means earning enough from your investments every year to maintain your cost of living, with less risk than the overall market.
You may think that’s what your portfolio does now. You have been told that the rate of inflation, sometimes called the annual cost of living adjustment, is about 3%.
I’m sorry to tell you that this is not true. The true rate of inflation is closer to 8 – 10%.
You are not living a life of financial freedom if you think you only need to earn 3% on your investments every year. Because the true rate of inflation is higher, you will lose half of your purchasing power in just 8 short years.
THE LIBERTY PORTFOLIO is intended to allow you to keep your purchasing power throughout your life.
The True Rate of Inflation
In 1940, Congress passed the Social Security Act. That is the law that established that every worker’s wages would be taxed, the money put into the Social Security Fund, and benefits paid out to them upon retirement.
From 1940 to 1975, Congress adjusted the amount that people received upwards, in order to offset inflation – the upward price movement of goods and services.
Over those 35 years, there were eleven such increases, and the average was 5.7%.
This was called COLA – the cost of living adjustment.
Then, two things happened. In 1972, Congress decided that COLA would be automatically increased each year based on the increase in the Consumer Price Index, or CPI.
The CPI is a figure that the federal government used to track the prices paid by consumers for a representative basket of 1,700 goods and services. The figure is measured monthly.
The CPI was averaging about 5.7% over the very long term in this country so for the government to toss in 5.7% extra every year into these payments was not a big deal back in 1973.
Then the second thing happened.
In 1980, the CPI hit 14.8%. Congress had to do something to slow down these ever- increasing payments, or there would not be enough money taken in from Social Security taxes to pay Social Security benefits.
So Congress changed how the CPI was calculated.
Now the CPI was designed so that, no matter how high real inflation got, it would appear to only be about 3%.
Americans did not know about this rule change, so we all believed we were only losing purchasing power at a 3% rate instead of what it really was…almost 10%.
How bad is this cheat? It’s really bad. If you think that you are losing purchasing power at a 3.5% rate every year, then you believe that you will have lost half your purchasing power in about 20 years.
Unfortunately, if you are really losing purchasing power at a 10% rate every year, then you have lost half your purchasing power in about 7.5 years.
THE LIBERTY PORTFOLIO is intended to allow you to keep your purchasing power throughout your life.
What is A Conservative Investor?
What do I mean by “The Conservative Investor”?
What is A Conservative Investor?
What do I mean by “The Conservative Investor”?
- It refers to Americans who are not gamblers. They are investors.
- It means they appreciate research on investments, and do not just blindly follow the crowd.
- It means they do not take unnecessary risks, and the risks that they do take have a commensurate reward attached.
- It means they slowly build a portfolio, and tend to it as they would a garden.
Permit me to illustrate the difference between gambling and investing, which is one of the many investing lessons THE LIBERTY PORTFOLIO will deliver.
When you go to a casino, you are betting money on games that are all designed to give an advantage to the casino. You may have heard the term “house edge”, which refers to the ratio of the average loss to the initial bet. What does that mean exactly?
Roulette has a house edge of 5.26%. That means that, over time, you will likely lose $5.26 of every $100 you bet.
Those words, “over time”, are what’s important.
You may walk up to a roulette wheel, put $100 on a number, that number could hit, and you’d win $3,600. Not bad! It’s also a great time to run out of that casino, because if you keep playing, over time, that win is going to erode. It may take hundreds or even thousands of spins, but over time, you will end up losing $5.26 for every $100 you bet.
With gambling, you have a negative expected return over time.
In other words, you should lose money over time.
Investing is very different. Investing has a positive expected return over time.
In other words, you should make money over time.
As legendary investor Peter Lynch noted, stock prices tend to follow earnings. Because free economies almost always grow over time, earnings will grow over time, and so stock prices will go up over time.
Why “Over Time” is a Critical Phrase.
Do you know why I keep italicizing “over time“? This is to emphasize the most important point of THE LIBERTY PORTFOLIO. With investing, you may see wild swings if you look at the stock market in short time periods: day-to-day, month-to-month, year-to-year.
In some years you will see big gains, and other years you will see massive losses. In the short-term, the stock market appears to be similar to a casino.
But something interesting happens when you look at ten-year rolling periods. That is, when you look at the stock market over time.
Only once in history have the returns over a ten-year rolling period been negative, and that was the result of the Great Depression…and even then the results were just barely negative.
Look at this chart from 1973 to 2009
What does that tell us? That investing in stocks over the long term should yield a positive expected return, making it very different from a casino. The longer the time period, the higher the return.
Your First Two Lessons
And so we have the first two lessons of THE LIBERTY PORTFOLIO.
Lesson #1: Over time, the stock market should deliver positive expected returns.
Lesson #2: Ignore financial media that says not to buy and hold stocks.
The Goal of THE LIBERTY PORTFOLIO
Goal: build and maintain a long-term diversified portfolio whose returns are intended to beat the true cost of inflation (8-10%), with less risk than a weighted average of benchmarks.
Let’s unpack this.
Long-term means I hope to run this newsletter service for at least 15 years, and possibly longer. That’s because the Dow Jones Industrial Average has had only one 10-year rolling period where the index declined – the Great Depression. In fact, over every 30- eyar rolling period, the DJIA has had a positive return of more than 6%. Returns should be positive over this long period of time, long enough to blunt any damage caused by bear markets.
Diversified portfolio means spreading our investing dollars around multiple asset classes. This helps to blunt the effects of bear markets by not overweighting in classes that are more likely to decline in bad times.
True cost of inflation (8-10%) means that, as described above, THE LIBERTY PORTFOLIO will aim for a average annual rate of return that exceeds the annual cost of living adjustment.
Less risk than a weighted average of benchmarks means that the standard deviation of the portfolio – which is a measure of volatility, which equates to risk – will be less than the standard deviation of a weighted average of major benchmarks.
The goal of THE LIBERTY PORTFOLIO is to generate average annual returns of 10% with a standard deviation of 8. That means THE LIBERTY PORTFOLIO is intended to have a 95% probability in any given year of returning between – 6% and +26%. That compares to a portfolio of weighted benchmarks which would have a 95% probability in any given year of returning between – 26% and +24%.
THE LIBERTY PORTFOLIO will teach you how to have patience and courage, so that you can benefit from its strategy.
How Goal Translates to Strategy
What exactly does this mean when you pull it all together?
It means that THE LIBERTY PORTFOLIO is going to invest in a broad range of securities for the long-term. It will hold securities across many different asset classes. Those securities will meet specific, time-tested, fundamental criteria. They are the same criteria I’ve been using to select securities for 23 years.
It will also engage in short-to-medium term opportunistic trades, as well as use options contracts to enhance income and returns.
Over time, THE LIBERTY PORTFOLIO aims to provide a better return on investment as a weighted average of the benchmarks – and here’s the important part – adjusting for risk.
Based on your risk profile, you can also adjust THE LIBERTY PORTFOLIO’s asset allocation to take more or less risk than it does.
Let’s talk about risk, because that’s the one thing few advisory services ever talk about. In fact, it’s something that almost no broker will discuss. That’s because they aren’t really taught how to construct a portfolio. Managing risk is paramount but nobody talks about it.
When you look at other advisory services, and they crow about offering big returns in short periods of time, it’s usually because they are suggesting investments that have very high degrees of risk. Sure, it may work out just fine, and you’ll make a lot of money. However, if that trade blows up, you stand to lose a lot of the money you’ve already earned on other investments.
You have to decide how comfortable you are with risk. There are lots of online quizzes that will help accomplish this. I suggest you take several of them to determine what your risk profile might look like. However, even better, in the next year I expect to publish a book I am co-writing with one of the sharpest wealth managers in the country. It’s all about risk, and the information in that book is being incorporated into THE LIBERTY PORTFOLIO.
THE LIBERTY PORTFOLIO is geared towards conservative investors, who are investors who are less comfortable with above-average amounts of risk.
Conservative investors would rather achieve 90% of what a benchmark delivers if it comes with 25% less risk.
I want less risk because I want to avoid something that fund manager Robert Rodriguez, of the great FPA Funds, always talks about: avoiding permanent impairment of capital.
Trust me, you don’t want to buy into a stock you think has a great future, only to find it falls to zero. That’s permanent impairment of capital, and yes, I made that mistake early in my investing career.
That’s because I didn’t know when to take my losses, and I hadn’t learned how to avoid emotional involvement with my stocks.
That’s what you’re getting from me: experience. I’ve already made the biggest mistakes. You get to benefit from my costly lessons.
What We Aren’t
THE LIBERTY PORTFOLIO is not a strategy that will “transform everyday investors into millionaires”, “offer hot stock tips to give you triple-digit returns in no time!”, “transform $5,000 into $1 million”, or “give you a 10% income stream for life!”
These are slick sales tactics that don’t mention risk. Take that last claim, about getting “a 10% income stream for life”. It’s a high-yield dividend strategy. Now, there’s a right way and a wrong way to invest in high-yield securities. 10% dividends may have sounded great about two years ago, when you could capture 10% yields with energy- driven Master Limited Partnerships and shipping companies.
Then oil prices crashed, and the highest dividends in the world wouldn’t make up for the 90% crash in some of those stocks.
That was the wrong way to invest in high-yield securities.
THE LIBERTY PORTFOLIO doesn’t operate that way. There are plenty of high-yield strategies out there that THE LIBERTY PORTFOLIO will utilize, but they won’t carry the risk that those other “no-brainer” strategies carried.
THE LIBERTY PORTFOLIO believes that prudent, thoughtful analysis, coupled with sector expertise, diversification, and 23 years of investing experience, will allow you to build and maintain a long-term diversified portfolio whose risk-adjusted returns aims to beat a weighted average of benchmarks.
Who I Am
I learned to invest all by myself, mostly by reading and watching the markets, and with a little help from my father and a good friend. I invested, I traded, I used options.
Experience taught me everything I needed to succeed in the market.
I learned the biggest mistakes you can make and how to avoid them, and that’s one of my FREE GIFTS that alone will give you the wisdom to survive the market in the long term.
I became an expert. I could have launched this newsletter years ago, but I didn’t because I wanted to make certain that my strategy worked in bear markets like 2008-9, and frothy markets like 2014-17.
Peter Lynch was right, by the way. He said to invest in what you know, and you should definitely follow that advice. You probably aren’t even aware that you’re an expert in something that can help your investing.
A Case Study
Let me give you an example of one of my best investments ever. In fact, it was my first ten-bagger ever – an investment that returned ten times what I bought it for.
This story is relevant because it speaks to what Peter Lynch taught – buy what you know.
I worked in Hollywood for 12 years and learned all about the business of Hollywood, and kept up with it even after I moved on. So I know a lot about media, entertainment, and all the little things that other people can never know because they just aren’t in that world. I know agents and producers and writers and even crew members. They tell me things going on at the studios that inform my analysis on investments in that area.
People who I knew that began as assistants are now big agents, producers, or even run studio divisions. These are usually very smart people who understand both the business of Hollywood and, more importantly, that telling good stories is what matters.
My first ten-bagger was Marvel Entertainment, which I purchased in July of 2000 and which Walt Disney bought out nine years later.
Why did I buy it?
Earlier in 2000, I was writing on a TV show. There were two young associate producers on the show that worked with Richard Donner’s company. You know Richard Donner. He directed all the Lethal Weapon and other big action movies.
So here are these two smart young guys, and they impressed me. The show, however, never got produced because the French-Canadian company producing it went bankrupt. I never got paid! That was $60,000 in pay down the drain.
It turns out that one of these young producers, Kevin Feige, had worked with Donner’s wife, who produced the first “X-Men” film. That movie was terrific, it had a great story, and most importantly, it took the superhero genre seriously for the first time. It wasn’t campy.
I bet on the fact that other Marvel films would take the same approach, that audiences would respond to this, and that at some point, Marvel would start making its own movies. So I bought some Marvel stock, even though at the time, Marvel was only collecting licensing fees for letting other studios make their comic books into movies.
Then something happened in 2007. Kevin became President of Production at Marvel Studios. A few months later, Marvel closed a deal with Merrill Lynch. Merrill loaned it
$500 million to make 10 movies, and the only collateral was the intellectual property of those 10 characters! That’s right, Merrill believed so much in this business model that it didn’t take any cash collateral.
With that vote of confidence, I bought even more stock.
Kevin soon became the head of Marvel Studios. Disney bought the company for $4 billion. I thought that was a bargain, so I held the Disney stock I got for my Marvel shares. The rest is history.
That other young producer that worked with Kevin? His name is Geoff Johns. He now runs the DC Comics studio business at Warner Brothers.
I know movies. I know good stories. In this case, I knew the people involved.
I hope to use the same approach with THE LIBERTY PORTFOLIO. Buy what I know. Buy what I understand. Buy stocks of companies where I can tell the company’s story and how its customers use the products.
Why I Wanted to Do This
It takes time and effort. I wasn’t even sure if it would be worth it. Yet when I first started publicizing my intent to gauge interest, let me share with you what happened.
I was humbled and shocked to see just how many regular readers of my columns I had. I was overwhelmed with Emails, as readers told me they appreciated my conservative and thoughtful approach to investing, and that they’d love to subscribe.
This response floored me. I realized that I might just be able to help make a difference to people, to help them achieve what we all want – financial freedom.
If you’re reading this now, then you are probably as sick and anxious as many people are about the future. Uncertainty is bad for our health, and it’s bad for investors.
I took a long time to develop an approach that minimized uncertainty by relying on the data that already existed – that buy-and-hold is very much alive and well. You just have to pick the right stocks. Then, you can juice that portfolio just a little bit and, with little additional risk, outperform.
Reasons to Get Started
- Easy to maintain
- We are building a portfolio of carefully selected investments
- Designed to offer higher risk-adjusted returns that aggregated benchmarks
- You don’t have to execute a trade with a hot trigger finger.
- Value for your money
- Free gifts
One of the things that drives me crazy about the financial media, mutual funds, hedge funds and ETFs is this constant focus on year-to-year performance. As I said above, if you don’t have some way to measure risk, performance really means nothing. Earning a 400% return on Netflix means nothing because you took a ton of risk to get there.
Focusing on how a security performed in a period of a month or a quarter or a year, or even five years, is counterproductive. You have to evaluate it in context with so many other things.
If a company says, “We are going to turn this company around and we expect a 50% return on our stock in five years,” then you have something to go on, but that rarely happens.
Five years is nothing in the history of a legacy company but it may mean a lot to a new small-cap company. You just can’t make a one-size-fits-all judgment.
That’s noise. That’s what we’re trying to earn freedom from.
You have to evaluate each security on its own merits, and then evaluate your long-term diversified portfolio’s returns on its long-term performance.
Products and Pricing
What are you paying for, and what are you getting?
THE LIBERTY PORTFOLIO has three tiers of service.
Tier 1 – Basic Subscription
Over a period of two years, THE LIBERTY PORTFOLIO will deploy $100,000 in capital to build a long-term diversified portfolio. You don’t need to have $100,000 to benefit from the service. You can invest proportionally based on your own assets.
Each month, THE LIBERTY PORTFOLIO will parcel out a few thousand dollars into securities.
We do this because we want to dollar-cost average. This strategy is used so that we don’t put all our money to work at once, in case we are at a market top. Again, we want to reduce risk. By using the same dollar amount each month, we buy more shares of something when prices are lower, and fewer shares when prices are higher.
Of course, should the market have a big correction or a crash, we’ll accelerate our schedule and put more money to work more quickly.
We will rebalance our portfolio every six months.
Once we have our portfolio established, we will monitor it every single month, and constantly evaluate if the reasons we purchased each stock are still valid. If there’s a change, or if a company is acquired, we’ll replace it.
Tier 2 – Swing Trades
This is the same as Tier 1, except we will set aside a certain percentage of the $100,000 for short-to-medium term trades. These will usually be stocks that I’ve followed for years. I’ve kept track of trading patterns, how they move on news, developments at the company or the sector, or other elements that tell me there’s a profit to be made in the near term.
Tier 3 – Options
This incorporates the first two tiers, but sets aside another chunk of the $100,000 for options trades. Each month I’ll suggest 3 option trades that are designed to gross at least $1,000 in cash for your brokerage account.
Be sure your brokerage will approve you for Level 4 Options Trading. Consult with your broker as to how to obtain approval, as some have looser policies than others.
This is important: the stated goal of THE LIBERTY PORTFOLIO — build a long-term diversified portfolio whose risk-adjusted returns will beat a weighted average of benchmarks – only applies if you subscribe to all three tiers. The strategy of THE LIBERTY PORTFOLIO is holistic. You can’t work it with just one element. That’s the strategy I’ve been using for years.
If you want to just subscribe to one individual tier, you are welcome to do so, of course.
You may ask why the a la carte pricing is so much more expensive than the whole three- tier package. Good question. It’s because I want to encourage you to align your strategy with that of THE LIBERTY PORTFOLIO. That’s where I hope to accomplish the holistic goal.
Plus…get up to FIVE special reports FREE!
I’m so certain you’ll love what you see that I’m going to let you try out THE LIBERTY PORTFOLIO completely risk-free, for a special Charter Subscriber rate.
And as soon as you subscribe, I’ll send your copy of The 3 Biggest Mistakes Every Investor Makes report via Email, and you’ll see how my experience will save you from making these critical errors that destroy individual portfolios.
You’ll also get two other special reports, 3 Popular and Overpriced Stocks to Avoid and The Best High-Yield Investments Right Now, if you join me with the Basic Subscription.
If you’re not completely satisfied, just let me know in the first 90 days, and I’ll happily send you a 100% refund, but please keep the reports as my gift to you.
Of course, you’ll also receive the latest issue of THE LIBERTY PORTFOLIO, featuring in-depth analysis of my portfolio picks for the month.
This also includes access to ALL previous issues of THE LIBERTY PORTFOLIO, so you can build your diversified, long-term portfolio right alongside.
I can’t guarantee it will be right for you, but you risk nothing to try it out. And if it does work for you … the results could give you the financial freedom you’ve been seeking.
A Discount of 60% Off for You When You Act Now!
The price for THE LIBERTY PORTFOLIO is $149 per year (discounted from $379), and I believe it is worth every penny, and more. I put an enormous amount of time, money and effort into my research, with the goals of achieving financial freedom.
Now, if you are also seeking even higher long-term returns, consider also subscribing to THE LIBERTY PORTFOLIO’s Tier 2 product: Swing Trades.
For only $80 additional per year (discounted from $200), I’ll offer up to three short-to- medium term trades per month. These will usually be stocks that I’ve followed for years. I’ve kept track of trading patterns, how they move on news, developments at the company or the sector, or other elements that tell me there’s a profit to be made in the near-term.
For only $80! If you execute just one trade of 100 shares of one of my selections, and it moves by a mere $0.80 per share, you’ll have paid for it. If the Basic Membership doesn’t interest you, you can still get a Swing Trades subscription at the a la carte price of
$199 per year.
Plus, I’m going to provide you with an additional special report on swing trading, offering some of the basic strategies and concepts on how to select stocks for swing trades, where you are most likely to find the best choices, and pitfalls to avoid.
However, if you want a holistic approach to investing, one that aims to deliver long-term risk-adjusted, market-beating returns, consider also subscribing to Tier 3: Options. You can add this product for only $120 (discounted from $300). Each month I’ll suggest 3 option trades that are designed to gross at least $1,000 in cash for your brokerage account. If the Basic Membership doesn’t interest you, you can still get an options product subscription at the a la carte price of $299 per year.
However, for a total of just $349 per year, you get all three products. My options strategy alone is intended to deliver about $1,000 in gross income each month, making your $349 investment small by comparison. That’s less than a dollar per day.
I’ll also add a special report on options strategies – ones that offer limited risk with reasonable rewards for the patient investor.
Sign up through this offer and you can start your test of THE LIBERTY PORTFOLIO for 60% off. You’ll pay just $349 for one year of my monthly advisory, and you’ll also get five special reports completely FREE of charge!
So not only do you get the following with your Basic Membership:
- Report #1: The 3 Biggest Mistakes Every Investor Makes
- Report #2: 3 Popular and Overpriced Stocks to Avoid
- Report #3: The Best High-Yield Investments Right Now
But if you decide to join THE LIBERTY PORTFOLIO with all three products (with the same 90-day money-back guarantee), then you’ll also receive these additional reports…
- Report #4: Keys to Success for Swing Trading
- Report #5: Low-Risk Options Strategies
This is a small fortune in investment research; up to $879 worth of investment research that’s yours for just $349 per year. Keep in mind that you’ll still have the next 90 days to decide if you like our research or not.
If you don’t like it for any reason, no hard feelings.
Simply shoot me an Email before 90 days is up and I’ll issue you a refund. You’ll be able to keep the reports, free of charge.
Thank you for taking the time to consider these products. I’ll be working hard to provide you with the best analysis and selections for the long-term, diversified, conservative LIBERTY PORTFOLIO.
DISCLAIMER: The Liberty Portfolio is a publisher of financial news and opinions and not a securities broker/dealer or an investment advisor. You are responsible for your own investment decisions. All information contained in our newsletters or on our web site(s) should be independently verified with the companies mentioned, and readers should always conduct their own research and due diligence and consider obtaining professional advice before making any investment decision. As a condition to accessing The Liberty Portfolio materials and websites, you agree to our Terms and Conditions of Use, including without limitation all disclaimers of warranties and limitations on liability contained therein. Owners, employees and writers may hold positions in the securities that are discussed in our newsletters or on our website.