TL;DR
The ECB’s September 2026 Consumer Expectations Survey found a small rise in median expected inflation over the next 12 months, to 3.1%, while longer-term expectations were unchanged. Respondents also lowered their economic growth outlook and expected higher unemployment, alongside increased expectations for income, spending and home-price growth.
The European Central Bank’s September 2026 Consumer Expectations Survey, published on 23 October, showed that median expectations for inflation over the next 12 months rose to 3.1% from 3.0% in August, while expectations three and five years ahead were unchanged. Respondents also reported a weaker outlook for economic growth and higher expected unemployment, developments that offer the ECB a monthly snapshot of household views across the euro area.
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According to the ECB’s September survey release, median perceived inflation over the previous 12 months rose to 3.6% from 3.5%. Expected inflation three years ahead remained at 2.9%, and the five-year expectation stayed at 2.5%. The ECB said uncertainty about inflation expectations over the next 12 months increased slightly and remained above its level before the start of the conflict in the Middle East. The release did not quantify that uncertainty in the summary.
The ECB survey also found that households’ expectations for nominal income growth over the next 12 months increased to 1.1% from 1.0%. Expected nominal spending growth over the next year rose to 3.7% from 3.6%, while perceived spending growth over the previous year reached 5.3%, up from 5.2%.
On activity and employment, the ECB reported that expected economic growth over the coming 12 months fell to -1.5% from -1.2%, and the expected unemployment rate in 12 months rose to 11.3% from 11.0%. The survey found that respondents expected home prices to rise 3.5% over the next year, up from 3.4%. Expected mortgage rates in 12 months remained at 4.9%, while net reports of tighter credit access increased, both for conditions over the past year and expectations for the year ahead.
Households See More Cost and Jobs Pressure
The ECB survey results show a mixed household outlook: consumers expected somewhat faster inflation, income and spending growth, but were less optimistic about overall economic growth and anticipated a higher unemployment rate. Those views matter because household expectations can shape decisions about purchases, saving and borrowing, although the survey itself does not establish that expectations will become actual outcomes.
The ECB’s breakdown by income group points to uneven perceptions. Respondents in the bottom income quintile continued to report higher inflation perceptions and expectations than those in the top quintile. They also expected a higher unemployment rate and higher mortgage rates, and reported stronger expected home-price growth than top-quintile respondents. The figures describe survey responses, not measured differences in households’ eventual costs or outcomes.
For the ECB, the survey is one input into policy analysis, not a statement of policy direction. The September release showed that near-term inflation expectations rose, but longer-run measures were unchanged. The combination helps show how consumers assess prices and the economy; it does not, on its own, indicate what the central bank will decide.
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How the ECB Survey Measures Views
The ECB describes its Consumer Expectations Survey as a monthly online poll of about 19,000 adults in 11 euro area countries: Belgium, Germany, Ireland, Greece, Spain, France, Italy, the Netherlands, Austria, Portugal and Finland. The September wave’s fieldwork took place from 27 August to 28 September 2026.
According to the ECB, the findings complement other data used in policy analysis. Unless otherwise indicated, the release’s statistics refer to a 2% winsorised mean, a method that limits the influence of extreme observations. The central bank also cautions that survey findings do not represent the views of its decision-making bodies or staff. Results by country and for the euro area are available through the ECB Data Portal and the bank’s website.
Limits of the September Readings
The ECB survey records what respondents expected during the fieldwork period; it does not confirm what inflation, growth, unemployment, home prices or borrowing costs will be. The ECB’s release provides aggregate results, and its summary does not explain what factors drove the month-to-month changes or establish why respondents’ views shifted.
The ECB says inflation uncertainty was slightly higher and remained above its pre-conflict level, but does not give a numerical measure in the summary. It also reports increased net shares of households saying credit access had tightened or expecting it to tighten, without providing the percentages in the release text supplied here. Those details, along with country-level patterns and the underlying responses, require consultation of the ECB’s published data and methodological material.
October Survey Due in November
The ECB scheduled publication of the October 2026 survey results for 27 November 2026. That release will provide the next monthly comparison for household expectations. Until then, the September figures remain a snapshot covering responses collected between late August and late September, rather than an update on conditions after that period.
The ECB makes the microdata and methodological information available through the Consumer Expectations Survey webpage. Readers can use the next release and the accompanying data to see whether the September shifts in near-term inflation, growth expectations, unemployment and credit access persist, reverse or change further.
Key Questions
What did the ECB’s September 2026 survey find about inflation?
According to the ECB’s September survey release, median expectations for inflation over the next 12 months rose to 3.1% from 3.0% in August. Expectations three years ahead remained 2.9%, and those five years ahead remained 2.5%.
What changed in consumers’ economic outlook?
The ECB survey reported that expected economic growth over the next 12 months declined to -1.5% from -1.2%. The expected unemployment rate in 12 months increased to 11.3% from 11.0%.
When was the survey conducted?
Fieldwork for the September wave ran from 27 August to 28 September 2026, according to the ECB. The bank published the results on 23 October.
When will the next results be published?
The ECB scheduled the October 2026 Consumer Expectations Survey results for 27 November 2026.
Source: primary
