TL;DR
Los Angeles is experiencing a steady decline in population, with nearly 10,000 residents leaving annually. Experts cite demographic changes and housing supply issues as key factors. Despite this, housing costs remain high, complicating the market dynamics.
Los Angeles lost nearly 10,000 residents last year, according to recent data, marking a continued population decline despite persistent high housing costs. This trend matters because it affects the region’s political influence, tax base, and economic stability, prompting concern among policymakers and economists.
In 2023, Los Angeles County experienced a population decrease of approximately 10,000 residents, with the city of Los Angeles losing around 9,500 people. Over the past decade, the county has shed about 62,000 residents, even as housing prices and rents have nearly doubled since 2016. Experts attribute this decline to a combination of demographic shifts, housing supply constraints, and economic factors.
According to Stephanie Hawke, associate research director at the Terner Center, smaller household sizes are partly responsible; the number of one- and two-person households has increased, even as the overall population decreases. The average household size in L.A. fell from 2.98 in 2010 to 2.81 in 2024, meaning fewer people are living in each household, which sustains demand for housing despite population loss.
Why It Matters
This ongoing population decline has significant implications: reduced political representation, a shrinking tax base, and widening economic disparities. The displacement of lower-income residents, replaced by wealthier newcomers able to afford higher rents, exacerbates income inequality and alters the city’s social fabric. The high housing costs are both a cause and a consequence of these demographic shifts.
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Background
Los Angeles has experienced a long-term population decline since 2016, with 400,000 residents leaving over that period. Despite efforts to increase housing supply through laws like Senate Bill 9 and SB 79, construction has lagged behind the demand, leading to a persistent housing shortage. This shortage keeps prices high even as the population decreases, creating a paradoxical market dynamic.
Many homeowners hold onto their properties due to tax considerations, further constraining supply. Meanwhile, demographic trends such as declining marriage rates and aging populations contribute to smaller households, maintaining pressure on the housing market.
“People are moving out of L.A., but households are becoming smaller, so the number of households that require housing is actually rising.”
— Stephanie Hawke, associate research director at the Terner Center
“The shifting demographics are coming from both the young and the old, leading to smaller household sizes.”
— Hans Johnson, senior fellow at the Public Policy Institute of California
“People sit on homes because they don’t want to pay capital gains taxes or the ‘Mansion tax,’ so there are few houses available.”
— Bret Parsons, real estate agent
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What Remains Unclear
It remains unclear whether the current population decline will stabilize or accelerate in the coming years. The long-term impact of demographic changes on housing demand and city growth is still being studied, and future policy measures could alter the current trends.
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What’s Next
Next steps include monitoring population and housing data from the 2024-2025 period, assessing the impact of ongoing housing development efforts, and evaluating policy changes aimed at increasing supply. Experts anticipate that market elasticity may eventually stabilize prices if enough new housing is built.
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Key Questions
Why is Los Angeles losing residents despite high housing costs?
Experts cite demographic shifts, such as smaller household sizes and aging populations, along with housing supply constraints, as key reasons. Many lower-income residents are leaving, replaced by wealthier newcomers who can afford higher rents.
Will the population decline affect Los Angeles’s political influence?
Yes, ongoing population loss could lead to reduced political representation, including potential loss of congressional seats, as the city’s relative influence diminishes.
Are housing costs likely to decrease as more people leave?
Not necessarily. Despite population decline, high housing costs persist due to limited supply and demographic factors. Building more housing could help stabilize prices over time.
What is causing the high housing costs despite fewer residents?
The persistent housing shortage, homeowner reluctance to sell, and demographic trends maintaining high demand contribute to high prices, even as population declines.
Source: Google Trends
